EX-POST FACTO RESEARCH

GREETINGS!!!!

WELCOME!!!!! Ex-post facto is a Latin phrase that means “retroactive” or affecting something that has already happened. Ex post facto design is a quasi-experimental study examining how an independent variable, present prior to the study in the participants, affects a dependent variable. A quasi-experimental study simply means participants are not randomly assigned. It is a kind of research in which the researcher predicts the possible causes behind an effect that has already occurred. For example, if a child is delinquent (that is, one who indulges in criminal activities), then in order to find the basic reason behind such delinquency, the researcher would try to find out the various events that have occurred and the many possibilities that could have contributed to the concerned delinquent behaviour. The expected possibilities may be lack of discipline at school/ family history/ peer effect/ neighbourhood or socialisation. It is an interesting point to note that, the researcher predicts a cause based on a controlled effect (since no variation can be done on the effect which hasalready taken place based on the independent variable or the cause). 

CHARACTERISTICS OF EX-POST FACTO RESEARCH

Based on the concept of the ex-post facto research, it is also known as ‘causalcomparative research’. The ex-post facto research has certain characteristic which distinguishes it from other different types of research. Some of these characteristics are presented below in the following paragraphs.

The research has a control or a comparison group

As the research is done on basis of the study of the cause which has already led to its effects, it becomes necessary for the researcher to keep a control group, which can be used for comparison with the actual experimental group later,in order to analyse the cause of an already occurred event.

The behaviour, action, event or the treatment or the independent variableof the research cannot be manipulated or changed

As the ex-post research is a kind of study which tries to predict the causes based on actions that have already occurred, the researcher cannot manipulate or change the already occurred actions or behaviour.

The research focuses on the effects

Since the researcher tries to analyse and predict the reasons behind the occurrence of an event or phenomena, their first attempt is to focus on the event or the phenomena that has already occurred. Only after having a detailed study of the phenomena or the event, the researcher tries to determine the causes behind such an event or phenomena.

The research tries to analyse the ‘how’ and ‘what’ aspect of an event

Since the researcher tries to understand the causal effects behind a phenomenon, the research basically focuses on how and what reasons that has led that phenomenon to occur.

Explores possible effects and causes

With the help of an ex-post facto research, the researcher tries to analyse the cause-and-effect phenomena of an event, action or behaviour. 

ESSENTIALS/ REQUISITES FOR INFERRINGCAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS

In order to infer or conclude the cause-and-effect relationships, the researcher needs to take care of the following aspects:

Associative variation

In order to infer/ predict or conclude that a particular effect ‘y’ is a result of a cause ‘x’, there should be an association between them. Therefore, the researcher can conclude only after examining that a variation in ‘x’ yields the effect ‘y’.

Systematic order of events

The events or the process follows a consistent sequence or order. If variable ‘x’ causes ‘y’, then variable ‘x’ must occur before or simultaneously with ‘y’, and not after it. 

Absence of other causes

The researcher should analyse each aspect of the causal relationship with full detail and find out the best possible cause/ reason or independent variable that has ultimately led to the effect /action or event to occur. For example, the aetiology of cancer can be due to several factors. In an ex-post facto research, the researcher finds out the best possible reason that might have led to the occurrence of that disease within the person or the subject. 

STEPS FOR CARRYING OUT EX-POST FACTO RESEARCH

The process of ex-post facto research is systematic and follows a definite sequence.

Step 1. Determining the problem

In an ex-post facto research, it is necessary for the researcher to focus on the problem that he or she needs to study. They not only need to find out a problem, but also need to determine, analyse and define the problem which they will bedealing with.

Step 2. Literature Review

Before trying to predict the causal relationships, the researcher needs to study all the related or similar literature and relevant studies, which may help in further analysis, prediction and conclusion of the causal relationship between the variablesunder study.

Step 3. Formulation of hypothesis

The third step of the ex-post facto research is to propose the possible solutions or alternatives that might have led to the effect. They need to list out the assumptions which will be the basis of the hypothesis and procedure of the research.

Step 4. Designing the approach

Once the problem has been defined and the hypothesis has been postulated, theresearcher needs to select the sample which fits the criteria of the study. They also need to select the scale or construct instrument for collecting the required information/data. Once the designing is all finalised, the researcher analyses the relationship between the variables.

Step 5. Validity of the research

The researcher needs to validate the significance of their research. They need to be cautious regarding the extent to which their findings would be valid and significant and helpful in interpreting and drawing inferences from the obtainedresults.

Step 6. Interpretation of the conclusion

Finally, the researcher needs to analyse, evaluate and interpret the information collected. It is on basis of this step that the researcher selects the best possible alternative of causes which might have led the effect to occur.

STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF EX-POST FACTO RESEARCH

No research can be perfect. All methods have their strengths as well as weaknesses. The same is applicable in the case of ex-post factor research too.

The strengths of the ex-post facto research are:

It is considered as a very relevant method in behavioural research where the variables can’t be manipulated or altered.

The examples of such research can include many sociological (e.g., delinquency) as well as educational variables (e.g., achievements).

It is more useful than experimental research as it can be used in analysing a cause on basis of the effect, which is impossible in experimental research. 

It is less time consuming as well as economical.

It gives a chance to the researcher to analyse on basis of his personal opinion and then come out with the best possible conclusion.

The weaknesses as well as the limitations of the ex-post facto research are:

As discussed earlier, in an ex-post facto research, the researcher cannot manipulate the independent variables.

The researcher cannot randomly assign the subjects to different groups.

The researcher may not be able to provide a reasonable explanation for the relationship between the independent and dependent variables under study.